Futures Calculator

Free Tool

Futures Calculator

Calculate your edge, expected value, and payout on any futures bet. Enter the odds and your true probability estimate to see if the bet is worth making.

Payout table at different stakes

How to use this calculator

Enter the American odds (e.g. +500) and your stake to see profit and total return. Optionally enter your estimated true win probability to see your edge and expected value. If your probability is higher than the book's implied probability, the bet has positive EV.

Formula

Implied prob = 1 / decimal odds
Profit = stake x (decimal - 1)
EV = (fair_prob x profit) - ((1 - fair_prob) x stake)
Edge = fair_prob - implied_prob

Example

A team listed at +500 (decimal 6.0, implied probability 16.7%). You estimate a 20% true win probability. Edge = 20% - 16.7% = 3.3%. EV on a $100 bet = (0.20 x $500) - (0.80 x $100) = $100 - $80 = +$20. This is a positive-EV futures bet worth taking if you have conviction in the 20% estimate.

Frequently asked questions

How do I find value in futures bets?
Compare your estimated true win probability to the implied probability from the odds. If your estimate is higher, you have a positive edge. Build your probability estimate from power ratings, injury reports, schedule difficulty, and market context -- not just gut feel.
What is the vig on futures bets?
Futures markets typically carry much higher vig than spread or moneyline bets. All implied probabilities across all outcomes in a market often sum to 120-140% -- meaning 20-40% vig is baked in. Always shop multiple books to find the best odds before betting a future.
Should I bet futures?
Futures can offer value, but your capital is tied up for the entire season. Even with positive EV, the opportunity cost of locked-up funds and the higher vig make futures riskier than sharp bettors typically prefer. Keep futures bets to a small portion of your total bankroll.
What is expected value in sports betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss per bet if you repeated the bet an infinite number of times. EV = (win probability x profit) - (loss probability x stake). Positive EV bets make money long-term; negative EV bets lose money over time regardless of short-term results.

Want this calculated automatically?

JATSport scans 15 sportsbooks and finds positive-EV opportunities for you in real time.

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