ATS systems · situational backtesting · H2H history · key numbers · referee tendencies
ATS Trends Browser
Disclaimer: Historical ATS data sourced from public betting databases. Sample sizes below 50 should be treated with caution. Past results do not guarantee future performance. Data: Public betting databases · Covers · TeamRankings
Sport
System Description
Record (ATS)
n
Win%
ROI
Since
Trends are signals, not systems
Historical situational trends are patterns, not guarantees. Win rates regress over time as markets adjust. Use them as a secondary confirming signal alongside model edge and sharp money — not standalone picks.
Systems Builder
Build a betting system: pick your situation (home dog, divisional game, etc.) and run it against historical records. The table shows ATS win rate and ROI for that angle across all tracked games.
Sport
Home / Away
Favorite / Underdog
Spread Range
Game Type
Recent Form
Matching Historical Trends
Your Picks Backtest
Head-to-Head Record Lookup
Sport
Team 1
Team 2
Seasons
NFL Spread Distribution — Key Numbers
Frequency of NFL game outcomes by final margin (2000–2024 regular season + playoffs, ~6,500 games). Buying/selling through key numbers has significant EV impact.
Key number (≥6%)
Semi-key (3–6%)
Neutral (<3%)
Key Number Impact
Margin
Frequency
Impact on Spread Betting
Half-Point Value
NBA Key Numbers
Margin
Frequency
Betting Impact
NFL Referee Crew Tendencies (2022–2024)
Crews with high avg points/game or high penalty counts tend to produce Over results more frequently. Data based on ~280 regular season games per season.
Crew #
Referee
Avg Pts/Gm
Avg Pen/Gm
Over %
Tendency
How to use referee data
Crews with Over% above 54% have historically been +EV on the Over at standard vig (-110). This edge is largest in domed/indoor games where weather is neutral. Cross-reference with our live odds — if a high-scoring crew is assigned to a game where the total hasn't moved, there may be value on the Over.
